Murrieta Market Update - January 2026

Supply Metrics

Demand Metrics

Pricing Metrics

Market Timing

Showing Activity

Challenges

• Slower market momentum - New listings down 8.9% and pending sales down 9.9% indicate reduced overall market activity
• Longer time on market - Properties taking 27.6% longer to sell (37 days vs. 29 previously), giving buyers more time to negotiate
• Slight price softness - Median price down 0.6% to $691,000, showing modest downward pressure at entry-level
• More inventory - With 370 active listings (down only 3.1%), buyers have stable selection

Opportunities

• Strong closing activity - Closed sales up 6.2% and total sides up 6.2%, proving deals are still happening
• Robust closed volume - Volume jumped 11.2% to $173.6M, showing healthy overall transaction value
• Full price offers - Getting 100% of asking price on average, no concessions needed
• Minimal price cuts - Only 1.9% discount from original to final price shows pricing discipline remains strong
• Increased buyer engagement - Shows to contract up 15.4% and shows per listing up 3.2%, indicating active buyer interest

Seller Strategy

• Price accurately from day one - market is slower but still active at the right price points
• Expect 7-8 showings before getting an offer (shows to contract at 7.5)
• Plan for 5+ weeks on market (37 days average)
• Maintain home in show-ready condition throughout the marketing period
• Focus on presentation to stand out among 370 competing listings
• Work with agent to maximize exposure during the slower winter season

Opportunities

• Less competition - New listings down 8.9% and pending sales down 9.9% means fewer competing buyers in the market
• More time to decide - Properties taking 27.6% longer to sell (37 days) gives you breathing room to evaluate
• Stable inventory - 370 active listings (down only 3.1%) provides decent selection
• Slight price dip - Median price down 0.6% shows some downward pressure emerging

Challenges

• Still getting full asking - Sellers receiving 100% of list price on average, so negotiation leverage is minimal
• Low inventory supply - Only 3.1 months of supply (6 months = balanced market), still technically a seller's market
• Longer showing process - Shows to contract at 7.5 means properties get multiple showings before offers accepted
• Rising average prices - While median dipped 0.6%, average price rose 4.7% to $723K, showing strength in higher-end properties
• Minimal price reductions - Sellers only coming down 1.9% from original price, holding firm on pricing

Buyer Strategy

• Don't expect major discounts - offers at full asking price are still the norm
• You have slightly more time to make decisions (37 days avg vs. faster periods)
• 3.1 months supply means it's still competitive - move decisively on the right property
• Focus on newly listed properties before they accumulate the typical 7-8 showings
• Be prepared for competition - 3.2 showings per listing means other buyers are actively viewing
• Use the slower momentum to your advantage but don't assume prices will drop significantly

This is a cooling seller's market - still favorable to sellers but momentum is clearly slowing from peak levels. The 8.9% drop in new listings suggests seller hesitancy entering winter, while the 9.9% drop in pending sales indicates buyer caution. However, with only 3.1 months of inventory and sellers still commanding 100% of asking price, this remains a seller-advantaged market.